‘King-makers’ support the Swan

If Tamils are indeed the king-makers of the presidential election 2010, the common opposition candidate, Gen Sarath Fonseka is in an enviable position. Last week, not one, but several of those prospective “king-makers” put their weight squarely behind the former army chief and the chief of defence staff.
They included the main Tamil electoral combine, the Tamil National Alliance, Batticaloa Mayor Sivageetha Prabhakaran, and the general secretary of the Ceylon Workers Congress M. Sellasamy; the latter followed the footsteps of his colleague, CWC national organizer R. Yogarajan and deputy minister Higher Education Satchithananthan, who earlier joined the Fonseka camp.
The biggest prize, however, was the Tamil National Alliance, whose endorsement of Fonseka had been on the cards for some time. But, some quarters of the TNA’s parliamentrygroup stood in the way until last week, when the party leadership succeeded in persuading the MPs to support the motion spearhead by the TNA troika, leader R.Sampanthan, Suresh Premachandra and Mavai Senadhiraja .

The TNA support

The TNA parliamentry group met on January 4 to finalise the party’s stance on the presidential election. That was after the party leaders met with both main candidates, President Mahinda Rajapaka and Gen Sarath Fonseka to discuss the issue of the party’s potential support. During the previous meetings, the TNA’s parliamentry group remained split --- despite the overtures by the party leadership to get the party to support the common candidate.
Eighteen MPs attended the meeting on January 4 and 10 of them opposed the party supporting any of the main candidates. Eight others supported the proposition to back Gen Fonseka.
The dissenters finally caved in, leaving the party leaders to take the final decision, but securing their right to remain neutral.
“The General Election is coming. Therefore, we need to stick to the party. We can’t quit the TNA over this. So we finally told the leadership to take a decision and that we would remain neutral,” said a TNA MP who requested anonymity.
The TNA’s endorsement came after Gen Fonseka outlined a minimum program for immediate measures for the war affected persons and areas, pros and cons of which are discussed elsewhere in these pages.
The program was the former army chief’s response to the TNA’s eight conditions which included a political solution to address political aspirations of Tamils, general amnesty to LTTE suspects, dismantling High Security Zones, resettlement assistance to the IDPs, downsizing the military presence in the north east -- and an end to the organized ‘colonization’ in the North-East. (Please see Namini Wijedasa’s article above.)
Later, TNA leader R Sampanthan in a media communique‚ explained the TNA’s rationale for supporting Gen Fonseka.
“It is the unanimous view of the members of parliament of the TNA that President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s appeal to the country through the current election, for a mandate to hold office for a further term, cannot and should not be supported. The decision is based upon President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s performance in office during the past four years and also the discussions we have had with him.
No progress has been made in evolving an acceptable political solution to the national question. On the other hand decisions and actions of President Mahinda Rajapaksa have been retrogressive.
“...While we appreciate that some members of parliament of the TNA do not wish to support either of the two main candidates the majority of the members of parliament of the TNA are of the view that the only meaningful way in which the desire of President Mahinda Rajapaksa to seek a mandate to hold office for a further term may be thwarted is by voting for the joint opposition candidate General Sarath Fonseka.”
However, some quarters of Tamil community, some with strong affiliations to the separatist project, conceived by the old school TULF leadership and spearheaded by the LTTE, are not at all pleased with the TNA decision.

Not to support

Global Tamil Forum, an umbrella forum of diaspora Tamil organizations early last week wrote to Mr. Sampanthan, calling upon the TNA not to support either of the main candidates, “who were largely responsible for the deaths of Tamils’ kith and kin and destruction of the Tamil homeland.”
“GTF stands in support of fundamental principles of the 1976 Vadukkoddai Resolution which was supported and overwhelmingly voted through a democratic election in 1977 by the Tamils of the island nation. Whilst we appreciate that any candidate cannot espouse the resolution in full in words due to the unreasonable restrictions levied by the sixth amendment of the Sri Lankan constitution, we will stand in solidarity with a candidate who will espouse the spirit of the resolution within the constraints,” it said in a letter to Mr Sampanthan.
What is, however, interesting is that, such advocacy on behalf of the secession is now largely a diaspora phenomenon. Diaspora nationalism and radicalization has nowadays been a focus of social scientists given the striking empirical evidence that radicalization levels of certain diaspora communities are stronger than of their brethren back home. Disapora functions as the last reservoir of nationalism even after the secessionist insurrections are crushed at home as in the case of Sheik insurgency for a Khalisthan, and a separate homeland in Punjab which was crushed by Indira Ghandhi’s government and of course, Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka --- which despite its decimation at home, still enjoys a strong support among diaspora Tamils.
A constituent party of the TNA, All Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC) which earlier announced that it would boycott the election has also backtracked and expressed its support for Fonseka.
But, TNA MP, M.K. Sivajilingam who submitted nomination to run for presidency says he would contest irrespective of the party decision.
“I won’t backtrack,” Sivajilingam told LAKBIMAnEWS over the phone as he drove from Colombo to Jaffna carrying the remains of Thiruvengadam Velupillai, the father of the Tiger leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran.
Sivajilingam was also entrusted with the custody of Vallipuram Parvathy, the mother of the Tiger leader. Sivajilingam said he would hand Ms Parvathy over to her daughter when she arrives from Canada. Velupillai senior’s funeral would be held at 11 am today in Velvettithurai.
Some others who decided to put their weight behind the common opposition candidate later learnt that defying the Rajapaksa regime would have repercussions.
Young Batticaloa mayor Sivageetha Prabhakaran who came to Colombo to pledge her support to Gen Fonseka was told her security had been slashed.
Her security personnel had been ordered by their superiors to report to headquarters, leaving the mayor high and dry in Colombo. That is yet another indictment of the sorry way in which VIP security has been determined on the basis of political loyalties to the government. The Defence Ministry owes an explanation as to how the threat level faced by Ms Prabakaran receded suddenly ---- such a threat level change is the only legitimate reason to cut down her security, after her alignment with Fonseka.
The endorsement from the TNA and some other key Tamil political personalities means Fonseka had grabbed a large chunk of Tamil votes, which would offset his losses in some of the Rajapaksa-heavy rural interior.
The TNA won 633,000 votes in the General Election 2004. It is, still, the dominant political force in the North. Though the TMVP emerged as a potent force in the provincial council elections in the Eastern province, which the TNA didn’t contest, it is a fair conjecture that a majority of the moderate Tamils still vote for the TNA, especially its main constituent party, the TULF. That leaves Fonseka on a strong footing in the North.
The endorsement from CWC heavyweights means that CWC leader Arumugam Thondaman would have a hard time persuading the Indian Tamil voters to back the incumbent president.

Sinhala heartland lost?

However, though all that (see main story) looks rosy for Fonseka, he cannot win the election only by sweeping the board in the North East and Upcountry Tamil electorate. In the rural interior, the incumbent president rides high on a wave of popularity. That is partly because the Fonseka campaign had been slow to reach the grassroots.
That is also because Rajapaksa had delivered goods to the rural electorate. His administration ended the war which was ably supported by Fonseka, and brought development to the village.
He had also been successful in shoring up Sinhala nationalist sentiment whenever he finds it useful to his campaign. In contrast, Fonseka’s initial promise was a set of liberal democratic reforms, which, of course, is imperative to avert Sri Lanka’s slide to autocracy. But the rural electorate has more urgent needs and is largely clueless of the 17th amendment which Fonseka pledges to implement. In short, illiberal regimes are sustained and some times, elected, by illiberal societies.
Bottom line is that Fonseka can’t win the election by winning only the lions share of Tamil votes. Also, as for Rajapaksa even if he wins the election --- which is still premature to say --- if it is tainted by a colossal protest vote against him by the minority communities, that win would not be a complete victory.