Opposition ahead, but could appearances deceive?

These are the results of the last presidential election held in 2005: Mahinda Rajapaksa 4,887,152 or 50.29 per cent of the vote, Ranil Wickremesinghe 4,706,366 or 48.43 percent of the vote.
The margin is extremely thin —- and as can be seen, does not even add up to a basic two percentage points.
If the UNP backed common candidate loses 5 per cent of that vote that was cast in 2005, it appears mathematically that he may still win the election if the sizeable JVP and now the Tamil party vote blocks are counted in his column.
The JVP vote bank is said to be a block vote of at least 6.5 lakhs - it’s usually more - and if this accrues to Fonseka’s column along with all the Tamil votes that would come due to the pledged TNA support, going by the statistics above, incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa would have no chance at the forthcoming presidential poll on January the 26th.
However, the analysis may not be as simple as that. It’s being variously said that Mahinda Rajapaksa has gained at least 600000 votes (repeat, at least...) among the Sinhala majority after he won the war, and at the least a good 300000 Tamil votes from the eastern province.
Add this to his column and analysts say this election could be a humdinger - a one-day match that goes down to the wire.
Bur Mahinda Rajapaksa’s own analysts say that the quantum of votes he has gained since the war victory is phenomenal, and much more than what’s given above. The UNP candidate Wickremesinghe received an abysmal 36 percent of the vote in the Matara district for instance in the 2005 outing.
Is it unlikely that the current opposition common candidate’s vote would fall below this mark in Matara, for instance. The UPFA is however banking on the fact that it would.
They go by the results of the provincial polls.
The president seems to have called this election on the basis of the UPFA performance at these provincial contests.
That calculation may come a cropper for the president.
The above statistics show that the opposition needs a very slender gain to tip the balance. A Mahinda victory on the above statistics and the way the Tamil and the JVP votes have been falling into Fonseka’s column, is highly improbable to put it in plain language.

Landslide

Therefore Mahinda Rajapaksa literally needs a landslide in his core Sinhala constituency to win this election now.
He expects this landslide, going largely by the landslide margins in the recent provincial council polls, to repeat.
But would he get a duplication of that landslide, considering that he got the landslide due to his war hero image and that now he is pitted against a war hero in his own right?
The opposition is gung-ho that the government has already conceded the election and there were stories in party papers that certain top government folks have booked flights already, or have disappeared to foreign countries in anticipation of defeat.
How can the president pull off a landslide in the Sinhala heartland that he absolutely needs to win, if he is to have any chance of a second term in Temple Trees?
His strategy seems to be to sink Fonskea by associating him with his Tamil allies. He says that Fonseka made several compromises with the TNA to win their support.
But it’s no secret that the president himself wanted to win TNA support, but failed to do so after talks with Sambandan crashed.
The numbers may indicate that this election is Fonseka’s to lose; i.e.: he could take winning for granted unless he makes unconscionable errors.
One could see that the president’s campaign against Fonseka is intensifying every day now due to the closeness of this race. However, there is every indication that there is overkill and that this constant barrage of invective also has its backfiring effects.
So, is it then, indeed, a mathematical impossibility considering the above numbers that incumbent president Mahinda Rajapaksa could win this election?
Well the answer is a yes and a no.
While on the face of things it indeed appears winning is a mathematical no-no, Mahinda Rajapaksa is banking on that intangible measure of popularity among the Sinhala heartland. He seems to count on the fact that at the end of the day the mass of people would surmise that war hero though he may be, that Fonseka has fallen in with traitors, and a huge groundswell of Sinhala protest vote against the “traitor’’ would come his way and bury Fonseka in the last analysis.
Already a massive groundswell of Tamil votes seem to be coming Fonseka’s way considering his successful campaign last week in Jaffna and Mannar where the crowds were phenomenal.

Late-breaking category

Fonseka has Colombo district sewed up but Nuwara Eliya may still fall in the president’s column unless Thondaman offers lukewarm support, now that all his key party lieutenants have defected to Fonseka’s camp.
Still, the election depends on how Fonseka fairs in Matara and many similar southern electorates where the last UNP presidential candidate went down to a dismal 36 percent.
But the JVP is throwing in its organizational heft to bolster Fonseka’s numbers.
It seems to be almost clear that Fonseka would lose in areas such as Ratnapura, Moneragala etc, which are all considered components of the Sinhala heartland.
But the rest of the “south’’ also depends on how the late breaking voters decide. Statistics reveal that there are a large number of undecided voters who fall into this vital late-breaking category.
Since the recent momentum —- considering the Tamil support etc, —- is going Fonseka’s way, if these late breaking votes go his way as well, one thing is certain — Rajapaksa may as well start packing his bags to say goodbye to Temple Trees.