Will the President walk the talk?

It is pointless reiterating what has been stated in this column in the last few weeks - - which is essentially that, though the addition of numbers seem to favour Fonseka, that the groundswell that President Rajapaksa expects from the Sinhala electorate could offset this seeming advantage.
Essentially what it means is whether the Sinhala electorate is overwhelmingly with Rajapaksa or not.
However, without reiterating this basic postulate that should weigh in on any election prediction, suffice to say that there is also, not an entirely new dimension to the calculation.
General Fonseka has already alleged that there are elaborate moves to rig the election in the north and the east, particularly — as well as the rest of the country. Can mass scale rigging win the election - - or alternately, if the race is close, can some calculated rigging in certain locations alter the election outcome?
It could. However, the other side to this picture is the very closeness of the race, which would presumably make it difficult for any persons such as army and police to come out in favour of the government.

Building up the calculus

But even leaving an inevitable allowance for some rigging - - what would be the outcome of this poll?
Again, the above numbers must come under close scrutiny. Building up the calculus from the basics, it appears that both the UPFA and the UNF or both president and the General are going to secure SLFP and UNP block votes respectively. Let us say that these block votes are 38 percent each to both candidates.
If Fonseka gets the majority of the minority vote, he would go upto at least 43 percent of the vote — and then if he gets a 2 per cent due to the JVP and the Muslim votes he would go upto 45 per cent. After that, he needs another less than a third of the 19 percent of the votes that are remaining.
Now that is a simple calculus that would put him over the top but the problem with this equation is that the president could get a majority of the minority votes also. Elsewhere, we have done a Vox populi of some of the voters in the north and the east.
Obviously the president gets a sizeable quantity of the north eastern vote also. If he clearly gets a goodly proportion of that vote - - - Fonseka’s chances may be sunk.
The president may therefore hurt himself if the government machinery tries in fact to stall the north eastern vote by rigging.
Besides last week the president was seen electioneering in the plantation areas with Thondaman. If he totally secures the plantation vote too —- Fonseka’s chances diminish by that much.
One thing is also clear. Rural Sri Lanka or a majority of it, is pro Rajapaksa. But that does not necessarily mean that he is a hands down winner because his majorities have to be very substantial if he is to offset the lead that Fonseka is bound to get —- with the minorities and the Colombo UNP block vote, JVP vote etc.,
Now, the last time around, Mahinda Rajapaksa got such substantial leads in the south. But this time it could well be a different story. The president overall is almost assured of winning the Sabaragamauwa and North Central provinces, and Kurunegala district, but his leads in those areas have to be extremely substantial —- at landslide levels.

Sinhala heartland

Last time he led in those provinces but not by much; in fact he lost Matale for instance.
So, the trick for him is to get a landslide in the Sinhala heartland —- and certainly that kind of landslide is not an impossibility considering the Rajapaksa juggernaut of a campaign and the post war Sinhala voter fealty.
Everything depends on Rajapksa’s Sinhala landslide.
Que Sera Sera.
The answer blows in the wind. If somebody was making odds I would say he would factor in Fonseka’s popularity among the forces, and ergo a substantial proportion of the Sinhala heartland vote for him.
The odds would then favour Fonseka. But bookmakers have known to be wrong; besides, Rajapaksa has previously defied everything and been known to walk the talk.