The turnout, and the minority turnout

By Jayashika Padmasiri

“Who is going to be the next President?” This seems to be the most spoken of topic these days. No doubt the attention of the public has been drawn to the upcoming polls. However, compared with other past Presidential and recent Provincial Council (PC) elections, most people are wondering as to what the voter turnout will be on January 26. Will it be better than in the past elections, or worse? LAKBIMAnEWS spoke to some political analysts ... Excerpts of the interview
Senior lecturer, Department of Political Science and Public Policy, Colombo University, Damma Dissanayake, predicted that the voter turnout would be more than 70% this time around .
“Most people are aware of how crucial this election is. And they know that the future of the country depends on this election. They are well aware of the fact that the country’s future is at stake here, and that it will completely depend on who wins the election and comes into power. So for that reason, I believe that the voter turnout would be more than 70% this time.”
Speaking further Dissanayake explained that the people will decide whether they want to go forward with a democratic structure and strengthen democracy. When asked about the declining voter turnout in the past PC elections in comparison to probable good turnout of the forthcoming presidential election, Dissanayake added, “With PC elections people do not care to vote because they do not take it seriously. It is not the same with a general election or a presidential election. Nevertheless I believe that this time voter turnout would be far higher than what it was at the last presidential election in 2005.” At the Southern Province PC elections held last year, the number of valid votes turned out to be1, 184,511 while 52,082 votes were rejected. The total polled was 1,236,593 and the registered number of electors was 1,761,859. A similar turnout was recorded at the Uva Provincial Council Election as well according to these reports. The number of valid votes at the Uva PC was 578,709 and rejected votes were 34,424 --- while the total polled was 613,133 and the registered number of voters was 875,456.
What can be observed from these statistics is that a large number of voters have refrained from voting at the past PC elections . Will the 2010 presidential election suffer the same fate? We spoke to Presidential Advisor Harinda Vidanage.
“I think most people will use their vote this time because it is an election where President Rajapaksa is contesting. The people would want to show their gratitude to him for ending the war,” he said.
“This election is very important; I believe that different people will vote for numerous reasons in order to record their political preferences. The voter has got a personal political space here to exercise his political preference. And each one of them will use that space to vote in the candidate of their preference, this time around , because people would want to have a say in the political scenario which is unfolding,” he said.

Competition

Senior Political Science Lecturer at the Sri Jaywardanapura University, Terrence Purasinghe, speaking to LAKBIMAnEWS said that he believes that at least 70% voters will turn out at the presidential polls because this time around, unlike at other elections, competition is very high between contenders and the public is showing a far greater interest than they did before.
“This election is going to be very different from past PC elections. Usually in PC elections the government is the winner,and for that reason voters are not very interested in casting their vote. Those on the side of the opposition refrained from casting their votes at the PC elections also due to this reason. However, this time around the opposition is very active and organized; therefore, I believe that the UNP and JVP voters will use their block votes this time unlike at other times,” Purasinghe said.
Speaking further Purasinghe talked of minority votes which were forcibly stopped at the last presidential election and said, “This time minority votes which were robbed from the Tamils and Muslims in the North and east will be cast. This is going to be the crucial factor about this election. I believe that these votes will be in favour of the main opposition common candidate Sarath Fonseka, while the rural Sinhala votes will go to President Mahinda Rajapaksa. This time competition is rife and most people would want to vote because this election is extremely interesting and everyone wants to be a part of it.”

Meanwhile, the Executive Director, National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, Jehan Perera, speaking about the voter turnout, spoke of another scenario. He said, "Already a large number of postal votes have been cast. People will be able to vote from all corners of the country.’’ Perera said that this time he believes that the situation will be different. He said, "both contenders are competing neck-to -neck and because these candidates are popular with the people it will motivate voters who did not cast their votes earlier -- at the past elections -- to use their vote."