Presidency in the bag, but road ahead bumpy

by Namini Wijedasa

Mahinda Rajapaksa won the presidential poll by a margin that was widely unanticipated. It was a cliff-hanger till the point of the election — the race was thought to be so close that the campaigns of the two main candidates were often laced with hysteria.
There was no photo finish. President Rajapaksa swept the polls in 16 of 22 districts and clinched 57.88 per cent of the vote. It was the will of the people and must be accepted. But the margin of victory is vast and may not bode well for democracy, particularly if the same difference is polled at the forthcoming parliamentary elections. A strong and viable opposition is an essential prerequisite for a functioning democracy.

Petitions will not succeed

Without a scrap of evidence in support, allegations of rigging, election malpractice and “computer manipulation” will have to be dismissed. Fonseka has said he will challenge the outcome of the poll before the Supreme Court but as Rohan Edrisinha, lecturer in constitutional law at the University of Colombo noted, election petitions are more likely to fail than succeed.
A petitioner must not only prove there were significant irregularities in the poll but that these affected the outcome. This, in practical terms, is virtually impossible as Sirimavo Bandaranaike found in her challenge of the election that saw Ranasinghe Premadasa become president. The hearing lasted nearly four years and the original bench had retired by the time a final determination was given saying irregularities were not established.

Pattern of voting - simple

The pattern of voting was starkly simple. Sarath Fonseka won six districts, all of them with significant Tamil and Muslim populations. He took Nuwara Eliya district with 52.14 per cent of the vote; Batticaloa district with 68.93 per cent; Digamadulla district with 49.94 per cent; Trincomalee with 63.84 per cent; Jaffna district with 63.84 per cent; and Vanni district with 66.86 per cent.
The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and Tamil National Alliance have clearly delivered in both the North and the East. Of course, it is still not certain whether all internally displaced persons were able to cast their votes. During a pre-electoral trip to Vavuniya, it was found that many IDPs who registered to vote in Vavuniya were subsequently packed off to other areas of the North.
Also, only around 22,000 internally displaced persons had registered to vote in Vavuniya - as opposed to their villages - and it is not clear if all the others were able to vote at the designated centres. But this is just the nitty-gritty of the election. Overall, there was a phenomenal 74.49 per cent voter turnout; the Sinhalese voted for President Rajapaksa, the Muslims and Tamils for Fonseka. Yet another example of how polarised Sri Lanka is - and how little has been achieved in ethnic reconciliation during the seven months following the war.
President Rajapaksa’s camp has vowed not to discriminate against the minorities on the basis of these election results. Basil Rajapaksa has told a news agency: “Well, our mandate (in Tamil areas) was better than last time (2005). I can understand (the reasons). We will look into the reasons. We will rectify whatever went wrong. We will try to win the hearts and minds of the people there.” He has also said: “We hope to work very hard to correct the situation in this region. I hope people will take the correct decision in the (upcoming) parliamentary election. I am positive it will happen. In the east at least we will win most of the parliamentary seats.”
It has been argued that, compared to landslide victories in recent provincial council polls, 57.88 per cent is a significant drop in popularity for the Rajapaksa government - for example, 72.39 per cent to 58.59 percent in Uva. But Dr. Jayatissa de Costa, who did his doctoral thesis on election law and has long links with the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, argued that the pattern of voting is not different from the provincial council election results and the few local government election results conducted during the past year.
“In big cities like Colombo, Kandy and Galle, the UNP-sponsored candidate scored well,” he said. “In the Northern and Eastern provinces, due to the support extended by TNA and SMLC, Mr. Fonseka was able to win all districts.
Popular plantation leader Digambaram was able to carry the Nuwara Eliya district for him but in all other districts, the voting pattern prevailed. The rural Sinhalese voted en bloc for the president.”
According to de Costa, there was “no manipulation, rigging or other malpractice, other than normal election violations to be expected in an island wide election”. The voters have spoken, he said, and politicians will have to accept the verdict. “The results are an indication of the personal popularity of the president and an endorsement of his manifesto,” he said. “Both ethnic and religious minorities, however, were not convinced.”
Another conclusion he drew from the results was that unless the JVP had some cohesion with one or two of the major parties, it could not win an election. “If they don’t come to terms with the UPFA or UNP, the JVP will be wiped out at the parliamentary election,” he said. But apparently confident of its following, the JVP has decided to go it alone.
The UNP lost some key electorates to the UPFA. From time immemorial, Mahiyangana was considered to be a UNP stronghold but was won this year by the UPFA. Hiriyala, a UNP seat, was also lost. In the deep South - Hambantota, Matara and Galle - there is a significant JVP following but Mahinda Rajapaksa scored in those areas. Division of the JVP into factions is thought to have contributed towards this.

Ethnic schism wide

Mahinda Rajapaksa has the presidency in the bag but the road ahead is bumpy, to say the least. The ethnic schism is wider than ever and much work must be done to reconcile and unite people. For that, the divisive, Sinhala Buddhist rhetoric of the past must be abandoned for genuine efforts to build relations. Gloating over election results is for less mature politicians.
President Rajapaksa, in his second term, will have to move beyond short Tamil speeches delivered with the aid of a teleprompter to the language of inclusion that the minorities want to hear.