Opposition “Cup gahai’’?

There is a strange and new crisis in the UNP which is the feeling that for what its worth it is Sarath Fonseka and the ‘Trophy’ that is offering some resistance to the government. This is also probably why it was rather difficult for Ranil Wickremesinghe to stomach the fact that Anoma Fonseka the General’s wife had asked some UNP organizers to come on board the Trophy list and contest with the general and the UNP.
However, there was a reason for the disaffection in the UNP, and that can be called the Aung San Su Kyi affect of the general.
He is seen as a martyr.
Ranil Wickremesinghe is seen as having been there a very long time.
Between these two there are some UNP opposition types also who want to back the general which is why Mangala Samaraweera’s close confidant Tiran Alles is backing the general while Samaraweera is coming on the elephant symbol.
It seems as if the political poles are shifting and that the masses are falling behind two principal poles in Sri Lankan politics —- the one led by the president and the other led by street fighting opposition forces that want to whip up street sentiment and even set the Mahanayakes on a rebellious course.
Before anybody gets any ideas however that Sri Lanka is therefore becoming a Philippines of sorts, it needs to be said that as usual there seems to be a lot of soda pop fizz, and then so much talk — but not so much real solid opposition that could disturb a government that is gung-ho and angling for a two thirds majority in parliament.
It is true that there are several points of opposition that the government is facing — and that the UNP is taking solace from the fact that at several key points in society, people are becoming ‘galvanised’ against the government.
The lawyers are one pivot of the agitation.
The Bar Association elected Shibly Aziz a dyed in green former attorney general as its president last week, defeating soundly Palitha Kumarasinghe a candidate who had the backing of the president.
This squares with the recent agitation that the opposition launched before the supreme court premises decrying the arrest of Sarath Fonseka.
But the point is that the UNP feels that the Mahanayakes are sensitised and that the lawyers are sensitised - - but there is always a trump that the government is able to play when the going seems to get tough.

Sanga convention postponed

With the Mahanayakes the government was able to get the Sanga convention postponed with some arm twisting tactics, and as far as the lawyers are concerned, it is also felt that they have always at the core been UNP anyway.
It also does not help the UNP that the party has already conceded the election. After all the Ranil Wickremesinghe platform seems to be that the government should not get a two thirds majority and not that the UNP should win the election which is not a desirable position for a political party to be in, particularly when the voters are known in this country to go with the perceived winner in a big way.
Bedsides that Wickremesinghe also says that he needs affidavits from his MPs that they would not crossover to the government, a sure indication if there is any that he is expecting a drubbing.
The point of it all is that one cannot on the one hand talk of overthrowing the government by galvanising street protests and Mahanayake and lawyer agitation, and then say that one is expecting only to stall a two thirds majority - - that does not sound like the Philippines at all, it does sound very much like, well, Ranil Wickremesinghe.
The only way that the UNP is trying to detract from these confusing signals is by identifying with the new protest movement that is gathering behind the arrested general’s Trophy - - but then the opposition cannot lean too far towards that movement without appearing to cave into the JVP thereby running the risk of losing UNP votes.
So the bottom line seems to be that the opposition cannot appear to be gung-ho when it is also quaking within, fearing a drubbing. You need to put your chest forward which is why some opposition folks feel that the general is at least doing that.
But as long as he is in jail, it seems clear that the Mahanayakes or lawyers or whoever it may be, can only offer the opposition some temporary upliftment of morale.