Horse trading and high hopes

Yes, it is true that the president has deferred his plan for constitutional change, effecting extension of presidential term-limits to three terms, and establishing an unelected second chamber.
The reason is pure pragmatic crunching of numbers which showed that with 5 left party votes absent, he would not have the necessary two thirds to carry through the contemplated amendments. His ruling UPFA is already six seats short of a parliamentary majority of two thirds.
In this rather unexpected situation, it is not unusual that there have been some real attempts at political horse trading. Believe it or not, it is a fact that in some government quarters there have been attempts to get Sarath Fonseka himself to crossover - - with his vote in parliament - - to the government benches. Indeed it is being said that the handshake between the presidential scion and general Fonseka that happened in the lobby room of the House and was recorded for posterity by newspapers, was a part of this reconciliation effort that seeks to reach out to this most prodigal of rebels.
There have also been efforts to win SLMC and Tamil votes, and it’s a fact that three of these votes are already in the kitty, even though efforts to woo Rauff Hakeem and the TNA have so far proved to be thoroughly unsuccessful.
There hasn’t been the expected success in wooing UNP MPs either - - and the bottom line is that the president has had to defer his project for constitutional change until he is able to cobble together a sufficient majority in parliament.

Some rumblings

There have been some rumblings in the UNP also with a bid being launched last week by MP Ravi Karunanayake to coax Gen Fonseka to come into the UNP as the party’s deputy leader.
This is in an obvious bid to stave off the ascendancy of Sajith Premasdasa which has been rather alarming to the political prospects of Ravi Karunanayake - - but the fact of the matter is that Fonseka took the offer seriously, even though he had been dissuaded by his JVP allies of entertaining the thought of joining the UNP.
He has instead sought to form his own political party, to consolidate his own position in the alliance with the JVP.
In this state of play, it was also rather audacious for the government to withhold a promised public sector salary hike until next year, which gives a chance for the opposition to say that the ‘peace dividend has been eaten up by the government.’
This is why the UNP took up the chorus of ‘IMF budget’ claiming that the IMF, as it usually does, prevailed upon the government to desist from providing a pay hike.
It may be funny to hear the UNP denouncing the IMF as the UNP has shown a keen proclivity to collaborate with the IMF and other lending agencies when in power - - but this is politics, and the opposition will take any chance to lambast the government.
What can be seen in all of this is that there seems to be some force or some forces that are trying their valiant best to align the opposition forces together to launch a credible opposition move aimed at de-stabilizing the Rajapaksa government.

Reforms committee

This is why even the UNP reforms committee has stated last week that all UNP posts should be decided by a poll of UNP MPs and working committee members, except the general secretary’s post, which will be open for maneuver with the elected party leader being given the right to appoint whoever he wishes to fill that vacancy.
These moves are to be ratified at the party convention, and party elections if they occur are to be held in December this year. But, especially in the UNP, there is many a slip between the cup and the lip.